Why Bagnaia may face more pain before he can take the fight to Marquez in MotoGP 2025

Marc Marquez’s dominant exhibiting in final weekend’s Thailand Grand Prix will need to have left alarm bells ringing for Francesco Bagnaia. So spectacular was the Spaniard throughout the 2025 MotoGP season-opener that even Ducati was left amazed by his efficiency. All Bagnaia might do was sit and watch as Marquez made the right begin with a crew that the Italian has known as house for over 4 seasons now.

Sadly, the writing has been on the wall for a while.

As early because the Sepang check, it was clear that Marquez had an early benefit over Bagnaia, regardless of becoming a member of a brand new crew and making a reasonably vital bounce from the GP23 he rode final 12 months. Whereas Ducati’s primary focus at Sepang was to figure out which version of the engine to homologate for 2025, each riders additionally acquired to give attention to their particular person performances and Marquez’s dash simulation put him comfortably away from Bagnaia.

But it surely’s the Buriram check the place the six-time MotoGP champion actually inched away from his team-mate.

Whereas Bagnaia basically misplaced the opening day of working resulting from a sequence of issues, claiming ‘nothing was working all day’, Marquez made critical progress in understanding the bike on each a single lap and on lengthy runs.

Marquez even accomplished a full race simulation on the second day of the check – and caught the eye of the onlookers with it – whereas Bagnaia merely didn’t have the time to finish such a long term after having to ‘begin from zero’ in mild of his day one troubles.

By the point the MotoGP discipline reconvened in Buriram, it was clear that Marquez had a headstart over Bagnaia, and it doesn’t matter what the two-time MotoGP champion did, he wasn’t capable of shut the hole to the entrance. Marquez ended up dominating the weekend from begin to end, following up his pole place with a double win, whereas Bagnaia was pressured to accept third in each races, behind the Gresini bike of Alex Marquez. 

It’s additionally clear that the Thai venue was merely higher for Marc Marquez than it was Bagnaia. The latter is known for making big enhancements in a single day primarily based on the info he collects in sprints, however this time there was nothing Bagnaia might pull out of the bag to place himself into victory rivalry.

Sadly for Bagnaia, the established order could proceed on the subsequent two rounds in Argentina and America, earlier than he has any probability of taking the struggle to Marquez and turning the 2025 season into an intra-Ducati title battle. Following final weekend’s Thai GP, MotoGP will head to Argentina this month, a rustic that has been a contented looking floor for Marquez. The Spaniard received the race on Termas de Rio Hondo’s debut on the MotoGP calendar in 2014 and repeated that feat in ‘19 in his sixth title-winning season with Honda. 

Bagnaia, alternatively, has by no means completed increased than fifth in Argentina. On MotoGP’s final go to to the circuit, he crashed whereas working in second and ended up exterior the factors. The truth that Alex Marquez additionally goes round effectively in Argentina complicates issues additional for Bagnaia.

Even Bagnaia conceded that he is perhaps pressured to enter harm limitation mode throughout the following two rounds, moments after stating that “I’m not right here to complete third”

The youthful of the Marquez brothers claimed pole at Termas de Rio Hondo in 2023 and completed on the rostrum the identical 12 months, by the way after battling with Bagnaia. It was unhealthy sufficient for Bagnaia that he couldn’t sustain with Marc Marquez in final weekend’s Thai GP, however being defeated honest and sq. by Alex Marquez solely added to his troubles.

After Argentina, MotoGP will go to the Circuit of the Americas, a observe the place Marc Marquez has been near-invincible up to now. Marquez was so dominant at Austin that he was dubbed the ‘King of COTA’ after profitable the American race for six consecutive seasons between 2013-18. He claimed a seventh victory at Austin in 2021, simply over a 12 months after sustaining a career-altering shoulder damage at Jerez.

Marquez would be the first to say that his profitable document at Austin is of little worth, as he scored all seven of these victories on a vastly totally different Honda RC213V. However there’s no denying that on a motorcycle as versatile because the Ducati, Marquez will likely be practically unattainable to beat in Texas. 

Subsequent up is Argentina and Texas, two occasions the place Marquez is MotoGP’s most profitable rider within the trendy period which means he has an amazing probability to determine a major lead over his team-mate

Picture by: Dorna

Once more, historical past doesn’t favour Bagnaia within the US, the place he has solely a single podium end underneath his belt. As such, the Qatar Grand Prix in April is anticipated to be the race the place he is usually a match. Bagnaia received at Losail final 12 months and likewise scored podiums on the similar observe in 2021 and ‘23. By the third spherical of 2025, the Italian can be prone to have racked up sufficient miles to negate Marquez’s early benefit and put up extra of a struggle for the world championship.

Even Bagnaia conceded that he is perhaps pressured to enter harm limitation mode throughout the following two rounds, moments after stating that “I’m not right here to complete third”.

“Argentina and Austin, we all know completely are two tracks [that are strong for Marquez],” he admitted. “Additionally for Alex, Argentina is excellent. It’s superb for a lot of [other] riders. So we have to work rather a lot and attempt to shut that hole. however you by no means know. Generally if you begin a race weekend you’re feeling unbelievable and every little thing involves you simply. We are going to attempt to do it. Already two seasons we aren’t going there and I am unable to think about the state of affairs when it comes to grip we are going to discover. The utmost will likely be to not lose many factors or acquire [as many] factors within the subsequent two grands prix. 

“Then we go to Qatar and Jerez and people are two tracks which can be superb for Marc however extra on my aspect.”

Discounting Bagnaia from the equation after the 2025 opener would merely be too naive, even after taking into consideration simply how rapidly Marquez has tailored to his new environment at Ducati.

One can at all times depend on the two-time champion to come back again stronger when the state of affairs calls for, and that is the most important problem he has confronted in his profession to date. Whereas Marquez is now anticipated to be extra constant and risk-averse than he was within the 2010s with Honda, even Bagnaia will likely be stronger this 12 months after his agonising title defeat in 2024.

How the pendulum shifts between the 2 this season will likely be fascinating to observe.

Is Bagnaia going to beat his agonising defeat in 2024 or will Marquez romp in direction of a seventh MotoGP crown?

Picture by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Photographs