How dependent is Red Bull on Verstappen – now and for the future?

“I feel I can in all probability win the constructors’ championship alone proper now”, Max Verstappen smiled throughout a Dutch media session forward of the 2023 British Grand Prix. He stated it jokingly, however there was reality in his feedback on two fronts. On the time, Crimson Bull’s dominance was such that Verstappen individually scored extra factors (575) than the second staff within the constructors’ championship altogether (Mercedes, 409). However it additionally spoke volumes in regards to the struggles Crimson Bull confronted with its second seat.

Practically two years later, the aggressive panorama in Method 1 has shifted. But one fixed stays: the second Crimson Bull seat continues to be a headache. Since Daniel Ricciardo’s departure, no substitute has been capable of match Verstappen. Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon, Sergio Perez and Liam Lawson have all faltered within the second seat, opening the door for Yuki Tsunoda to develop into Verstappen’s fifth team-mate in Crimson Bull colors.

A take a look at the numbers

The info paints a telling image. In the case of each race tempo and qualifying tempo Verstappen’s team-mates have persistently come up brief. Ricciardo was 0.049s quicker in the course of the qualifying classes in 2016, however Verstappen took over the subsequent season and the hole widened with annually: 0.202s in 2017 and 0.279s in 2018.

Since then, the deficits have solely grown, with Lawson struggling the most important gaps to this point. He trailed Verstappen by a full second throughout Q1 in Australia, was 0.813s slower throughout SQ1 in China, and 0.750s adrift in Q1 of the principle qualifying session. Evaluating Verstappen’s Q3 laps to Lawson’s finest occasions paints a good starker distinction.

The numbers underscore that the second Crimson Bull seat is among the most troublesome positions in trendy F1, primarily for 2 causes. Firstly, Verstappen’s outright tempo is tough to match in equal equipment, as the info exhibits. Final season, the common qualifying delta between Verstappen and Perez was 0.66s – the most important hole between all team-mates on the grid. Within the race, the hole was 0.56s per lap, as soon as once more the most important margin of all groups.

Does the Crimson Bull automobile swimsuit Verstappen’s driving type higher?

The second issue is said to the distinctive traits of the Crimson Bull automobile. Albon as soon as described it as a pc mouse set to 100% sensitivity: extremely responsive, but additionally extremely unforgiving with a pointy entrance finish and unfastened rear. Whereas Verstappen thrives with it, his team-mates typically struggled to seek out the arrogance they wanted with instability on nook entries.

It raises the inevitable query: does Crimson Bull design the automobile particularly round Verstappen, or does he merely adapt his driving type higher than others? Verstappen is thought to hate understeer, however provides that understeer makes a automobile primarily slower. Crimson Bull’s staff leaders Christian Horner and Helmut Marko normally reply the query by saying they merely construct the quickest automobile attainable, not particularly tailor-made for one driver.

Nonetheless, Horner supplied some perception in the course of the Chinese language Grand Prix weekend. “Max is sort of particular in what he desires from a automobile to make it quick and that’s usually a really optimistic front-end, very sharp flip in,” Horner instructed Sky Sports activities F1. “The consequence of that’s that it’ll unsettle the rear of the automobile. For a driver, it’s tremendously confidence sapping if you happen to’ve acquired a unfastened rear-end on entry into corners. In order that’s the place he excels, that is the place he is capable of stay on a knife edge. And he’s simply consistently asking for increasingly entrance out of the automobile. In fact, you might be all the time going to comply with the route of your quicker driver and that leads the organisation by way of its growth.”

Workforce sources emphasise that this isn’t a brand new phenomenon. One of the best drivers have all the time managed to deal with excessive traits – Michael Schumacher at Benetton and Ayrton Senna being talked about by Crimson Bull as two examples. However the extra a staff leans in direction of its quickest driver, the more durable it will get for the opposite one to adapt. Crimson Bull isn’t any exception, as Horner defined: “If I feel again to the start of 2022, we had fairly a secure automobile with fairly a little bit of understeer in it, which clearly Max hates. However we had an improve in Spain the place we put much more entrance into the automobile and Max made a giant step ahead, Checo form of nosedived from that time.

“You have to produce the quickest automobile, and also you’re pushed by the data that you’ve and the info that you’ve. As a staff, we do not got down to make a automobile driver-centric, you simply work on the information that you’ve and the suggestions you must produce the quickest automobile that you could. And that is clearly served us very nicely, with 122 victories.”

These closing remarks are attention-grabbing. Horner makes clear that Crimson Bull depends on ‘the out there information and suggestions’ and that outcomes are main. Verstappen has been the one driver persistently delivering them lately and that inevitably has formed Crimson Bull’s automobile growth in a sure route. It is sensible for the staff to comply with that route, as Verstappen is Crimson Bull’s solely probability to compete on the entrance at present. The automobile must be as quick as attainable in his palms. It doesn’t imply that the automobile is explicitly designed for him, nevertheless it does imply that making the quickest automobile he can nonetheless deal with – irrespective of how excessive it could be for drivers with completely different driving types – has been Crimson Bull’s most sensible path to success lately.

In 2025, that is much more urgent than earlier than. Not like early 2022 – when even a automobile with understeer was nonetheless adequate to win races – Crimson Bull now not has the luxurious of a efficiency cushion. It’s no coincidence that Perez was nearer to Verstappen early 2022 and early 2023, because the numbers under verify. Because the staff advanced the automobile right into a extra pointy front-end machine, which is actually faster, the hole elevated once more.

It creates a self-reinforcing loop. As a result of Verstappen is the one driver able to competing on the entrance, Crimson Bull should maximise his potential, which, in flip, makes the second seat much more precarious – leaving Verstappen because the lone frontrunner and reinforcing the cycle. In a means, it exhibits parallels with Honda’s MotoGP staff: for a very long time, Marc Marquez masked lots of Honda’s flaws, however the struggles of his team-mates instructed the actual story.

What does it imply for Crimson Bull long-term?

The present means of working is comprehensible and in addition profitable so long as Verstappen is there, nevertheless it does increase the query: what occurs if he leaves Crimson Bull or Method 1 sooner or later?

The reply for Crimson Bull isn’t simply “discover a new driver”. As Horner admitted, F1 groups have to make selections, and with Verstappen being the one driver persistently competing on the entrance for Crimson Bull, that selection is a reasonably apparent one to make. However it does imply that Crimson Bull must reinvent itself to some extent if Verstappen decides to go away the staff and even F1 sooner or later.

The affect could be felt past the cockpit because the staff wouldn’t solely lose an on-track anchor, but additionally a serious reference level in automobile growth. The present philosophy hinges on constructing the quickest automobile that Verstappen can nonetheless cope with, however with out him, extra concessions by way of peak efficiency could be wanted to allow the drivers to unlock it with a special driving type. It could require a change in automobile philosophy, which will be each a blessing and a curse.

The opposite means round is a component to concentrate to as nicely: the atmosphere Verstappen at present finds at Crimson Bull, the place he’s the principle focus for good purpose, might not instantly be discovered at each different staff. Constructing such an atmosphere and mutual belief takes time, because it did at Crimson Bull. Might it work elsewhere? In all probability. Prime-class drivers have accomplished it earlier than, each in and outdoors F1 – take a look at Marquez and Ducati these days.

Verstappen himself has all the time maintained that he doesn’t have a set driving type. “I don’t suppose the automobile is essentially suited to my driving type. I feel as a driver, you might want to adapt to what you get, and that’s additionally what I did after I joined Crimson Bull,” he stated. “The automobile was all the time like that, to be sincere. It had front-end, however I’ve by no means skilled a quick automobile which has understeer in my life, in any class. I really feel like if folks ask me, ‘What’s your driving type?’, I can’t inform you, as a result of I all the time attempt to adapt to what I get in the easiest way attainable.”

It signifies that for Crimson Bull the ‘what if’ situation appears extra necessary than for Verstappen. The staff is to a big extent depending on one driver for its present competitiveness – not by mistake, however by necessity. And whereas it’s a profitable technique with 4 world titles, it may also be a fragile one long-term. It’s one of many explanation why the strain is on these months and for 2026, not simply on the second driver but additionally on all the staff. As Marko just lately put it: “We’ve to offer Max with a profitable automobile, and we all know that.” The Austrian was very clear as a result of he is aware of that in some other situation, the consequences can transcend the fortunes of only one driver.