The brand new System 1 season is now simply across the nook, with the 2025 marketing campaign anticipated to be a continuation of final season’s unpredictable battle proper throughout the grid. With McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes all seemingly on target to carry battle to the nonetheless nearly frontrunning Purple Bull squad, it might even rival 2021 as a narrative-stuffed yr.
Whereas the title challengers will take the headlines, as ever there are fascinating subplots throughout with the sphere as compressed as it’s. Given Sauber’s late-2024 features, if issues are nonetheless as tight as the brand new season begins then there’s a robust argument to say F1 has no backmarker squads for the primary time lately. This implies each group has one thing to struggle for, which in flip provides stress to their drivers.
Beating your team-mate is the primary job for any racer, however in F1 this yr the shut combating provides an additional edge, as any underperformance will go away a group uncovered. Therefore why Purple Bull has lastly acted in dropping Sergio Perez, given how far he was ending from the continued successes of Max Verstappen.
The driving force market shouldn’t be fairly as turbulent this time round, as groups will need stability heading into the 2026 guidelines reset. However notion rapidly turns into actuality in world sport and so the intra-team battles will likely be no much less necessary even with this in thoughts, as how the drivers fare in 2025 might properly turn into necessary additional down the road.
Right here then, is how we predict the stress stacks up forward of 2025 for every driver, given the competitors from throughout their respective garages and within the context of their careers and reputations up to now.
20. Fernando Alonso
Alonso’s place at Aston Martin is rock stable and can see him into the brand new guidelines period in 2026
Photograph by: Andrew Ferraro / Motorsport Pictures
He’s bought a minimum of a two-year contract having re-signed with Aston Martin final spring, which suggests Fernando Alonso will likely be competing with Aston Martin as F1’s newest new guidelines period will get underway subsequent yr. How lengthy he stays with the inexperienced group past that is still to be seen, with there being a better probability of a break up if Aston can’t climb up the pecking order subsequent yr.
However Alonso clearly has the least stress from his team-mate given his sturdy report in opposition to Lance Stroll within the metrics that actually matter – with 38-8 and 29-5 scores from their qualifying and race head-to-head counts from the final two years.
And, as we’ll come onto, given the dearth of stress from the danger of line-up disruption general at Aston given Stroll’s place, the mix means he ought to take the bottom spot on this rating for 2025.
Aston is adamant the latest speculation about a future place for Verstappen at the team is nonsense and if the opposite superstars keep locked up elsewhere, it’s arduous to see how even the approaching Honda period means any extra stress on Alonso’s place. Not that that issues proper now.
19. Lance Stroll

Stroll’s place at Aston Martin will not be underneath menace given his father’s possession of the group
Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Pictures
Alonso’s clear superiority within the intra-Aston struggle means Stroll should line up under him on this train, however his place because the proprietor’s son implies that issues little or no.
Stroll’s place is safe so long as he and his father Lawrence need to proceed on the high-profile F1 path, which to date has yielded three podiums and one pole from 166 race begins since 2017. Stroll is, nonetheless, but to take any silverware or pole stats underneath the Aston banner.
There have been occasions in 2024 when he was in a position to outpace Alonso in qualifying, however they proved to be short-lived.
18. Pierre Gasly

Following his glorious finish to 2024 and with an under-pressure rookie coming in alongside him, Gasly will not be anticipated to face an enormous menace at Alpine
Photograph by: Alpine
Pierre Gasly had a wonderful 2024 season, when he had a team-mate that pushed him extraordinarily shut. Esteban Ocon was really a fraction faster on common in qualifying and held sway throughout the early a part of the yr when the Alpine was chubby, however after that and their Monaco crash, it was actually all Gasly. Even Ocon’s wet-weather brilliance in Brazil wasn’t sufficient to overtake his team-mate’s factors haul by the yr’s finish.
With Ocon now at Haas, Gasly will likely be on acquainted floor from his AlphaTauri days in working with a rookie in Jack Doohan (a minimum of for now). Given the Australian’s lack of expertise bar that Abu Dhabi cameo – the place he certified and completed 14 and eight spots respectively again on Gasly – there’s little actual stress of a battle between them at this stage.
If that have been to develop and Gasly performs a mentorship function and sustains group concord as he did so properly final yr, that’d really be a plus.
17. Max Verstappen

Verstappen had Perez completely coated, however Lawson’s arrival brings a brand new dynamic
Photograph by: Purple Bull Racing
If he nonetheless had Perez as a team-mate, Verstappen would take the least-pressured spot on this record – and comfortably so given all the things that F1 witnessed over the past 4 seasons. However now Liam Lawson is aboard the opposite Purple Bull, there’s at least a crack of new doubt for the world champion.
Verstappen stays one of the best driver of this period, nonetheless, and so it’s solely how the unknown provides into logical pondering which means he should climb just a few spots increased than may later be the case if that beforehand stable 0.3s tempo hole over Perez is sustained with Lawson.
The questions over his long-term future with Purple Bull proceed in 2025, however any probability of an exit relaxation solely on his personal decision-making.
16. Yuki Tsunoda

Tsunoda’s future arguably doesn’t depend upon how properly he performs relative to Hadjar
Photograph by: Purple Bull Content material Pool
Yuki Tsunoda is definitely in a relatively awkward profession place. Purple Bull denied him the prospect of a promotion for 2025 when it ditched Perez and its emotions in direction of Tsunoda are unlikely to alter given how lengthy it’s had him on its books and competing on the prime stage.
Subsequently, it’s all about what may occur with Aston, Alonso and Honda that might resolve Tsunoda’s future, not how he fares in opposition to new team-mate Isack Hadjar in 2025. Tsunoda’s appreciable backing from Honda may enchantment to Aston commercially from 2026 onwards, however one can hardly count on Andy Cowell and Adrian Newey to contemplate such a swap an improve on Alonso.
At this stage, it stays unknown how Hadjar will fare at this stage. However based mostly on the dearth of cool he so often confirmed over the System 2 airwaves – a cost that may be levelled at Tsunoda at F1 stage that may have fashioned a part of Purple Bull’s late-2024 alternative – proper now a lopsided Racing Bulls outcomes returned needs to be anticipated.
That’s firmly in fifth-year F1 driver Tsunoda’s favour.
15. Esteban Ocon

Ocon was picked out by Haas to steer its new period and team-mate Bearman continues to be discovering his means in F1
Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Pictures
Ocon is one in every of 4 drivers experiencing a special type of stress in 2025: a longtime star settling in at a brand new squad.
He’s been handpicked by Haas boss Ayao Komatsu to successfully lead its contemporary period and by all accounts he’s been happy by what he’s seen to date at his new group. At Haas’s latest Jerez TPC check, Ocon was stated to have been impressed by simply how environment friendly the squad – much reworked for 2025 in terms of its trackside make-up – labored.
He’ll have (half) rookie Oliver Bearman as his team-mate and is due to this fact anticipated to be the intra-squad frontrunner. Ocon’s status as a formidable team-mate additionally pushes a number of the stress in direction of Bearman. There’s unlikely to be a lot quarter given from his VF-25.
However Komatsu has made it clear he gained’t tolerate them crashing and so Ocon must be cautious he can’t be too feisty in the event that they do find yourself scrapping over the identical bits of asphalt as soon as the yr will get going.
14. Gabriel Bortoleto

Bortoleto is within the enviable place the place his junior pedigree buys him grace in opposition to Hulkenberg
Photograph by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Pictures
Given there’s no proof to go on for a number of the 2025 rookies – a sure contradiction at play for half of the six given Doohan, Bearman and Lawson have began a handful or much less of races – particular issues each separate and group them on this record.
Bortoleto is without doubt one of the three but to make an F1 bow, however his junior pedigree gives him a level of consolation.
The final three drivers to have secured back-to-back F3/GP3-F2 titles are Charles Leclerc, George Russell and Oscar Piastri – high-quality peddlers, all. To some, this may increase the stakes, however I’m selecting to view it at the moment as an indication of extra good issues to return for a driver stated to even be a completely good man.
He’s racing in opposition to veteran Nico Hulkenberg at Sauber. He gained’t provide any handouts, however Haas insiders say he warmed to Bearman over their two weekends as team-mates in Baku and Brazil final yr.
Hulkenberg had an ideal 2024, so Bortoleto getting overwhelmed by him this yr can be no disgrace. And, if it’s the reverse in any case, all’s the for the Brazilian.
13. Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Antonelli’s sturdy help from Wolff means he begins his F1 profession with little stress
Photograph by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Pictures
Grouped with Bortoleto as a result of he too is but to begin an F1 race, however what retains Antonelli so removed from the stress scorching seats can also be what introduced him to F1.
That is Antonelli’s shut private relationship with Mercedes boss Toto Wolff, to whom he has to thank for his fast profession development from all these System 4 and System Regional titles in 2022 and 2023.
Wolff is claimed to have come to grasp that giving Antonelli a house F1 weekend debut in FP1 at Monza was a mistake, however how forcefully the Austrian went out to bat for his cost within the press convention after that shunt exhibits the energy of help Antonelli will take pleasure in at Mercedes.
After all, there’s stress in being Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes substitute, and Wolff’s help gained’t go on Stroll-style ceaselessly if Antonelli can’t hack in F1. However that he’s bought this far so quick suggests he ought to.
12. Nico Hulkenberg

Hulkenberg loved an excellent 2024 at Haas, however as he adapts to rejoining Sauber will need to keep away from being overwhelmed by rookie Bortoleto
Photograph by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Pictures
The expectation will likely be for Hulkenberg and his 227 F1 race begins to blow away Bortoleto in 2025. However the German can also be discovering his ft once more at Sauber, 11 years after he final raced for the Swiss group.
There are different parts to contemplate in the case of intra-squad stress on this case.
One is that Hulkenberg, though armed with a multi-year contract to soak up the beginning of the approaching Audi period from 2026, was employed by earlier group administration topped by former group CEO Andreas Seidl. Mattia Binotto and Jonathan Wheatley have been signed afterwards as CTO/COO and group principal respectively, with skilled sport plagued by examples of stars being ultimately ousted because of such conditions.
Hulkenberg was a qualifying star when he was reborn in F1 at Haas, however each occasions he was paired with Bearman in 2024 the Briton produced an ideal report of outqualifying him (thrice in whole factoring within the Brazil dash weekend).
That raises one other crack of uncertainty Bortoleto might be able to exploit with comparable gorgeous tempo. And with Sauber needing optimistic outcomes after a dire 2024, Hulkenberg will discover the stress rising if that does turn into the case.
11. Oliver Bearman

Bearman has two race begins for Haas already underneath his belt, however is aware of new arrival Ocon will not give an inch
Photograph by: Lubomir Asenov / Motorsport Pictures
It’s Bearman’s team-mate and his feisty status that amps up the stress for the still-started-three-races rookie in his first marketing campaign with Haas.
Having spoken to Bearman just lately, I don’t concern he’s underneath any illusions in the case of how arduous Ocon may make it – “everybody tells me that he is very fast” and “I do know he’ll be powerful” statements telling. And, certainly, Ocon will not be fairly as prepared to scrap as arduous in opposition to Bearman in his first yr with a brand new group after all the things that beforehand occurred with Perez, Alonso and Gasly at his former squads.
However Ocon is critically fast and in contrast to Hulkenberg, has a observe report of silverware success on the highest stage. That alone means Bearman’s activity is hard in 2025 and a poor return in opposition to Ocon would stunt the momentum he’s constructed up quickly as a junior and enriched additional with that calm cameo in his Ferrari Jeddah debut final yr.
Bearman might nonetheless very present properly, nonetheless, and given group boss Komatsu is iron-clad in his belief in the 19-year-old, a robust 2025 stays doubtless too. One factor he might look to use is how Ocon’s race tempo too usually got here in a lot adrift of Gasly for Alpine in 2024.
10. Isack Hadjar

Tsunoda is a confirmed pressure in F1, and Hadjar won’t have lengthy to impress with Lindblad respiratory down his neck
Photograph by: Purple Bull Content material Pool
Once more, the dearth of F1-level knowledge means we’re leaving the door ajar for the Frenchman, who might excel amidst the joy of an sudden promotion to the highest stage a la Franco Colapinto.
However the Argentine is exactly the explanation Hadjar will likely be underneath stress, as if it weren’t for Colapinto’s many crashes as his Logan Sargeant-replacement stint wore on late in 2024, then Purple Bull might properly have gone by means of with its plan to signal him from Williams.
Concurrently this was being critically thought by means of by RB’s benefactor, Purple Bull insiders have been suggesting Hadjar had little probability to make it to F1 even together with his F2 title problem final yr.
However circumstances swung his means and he deserves a good crack now he’s arrived on the prime stage. The pressure-increasing downside is that Purple Bull provides its junior drivers so little time nowadays (see Nyck de Vries) and the kinds of radio outbursts Hadjar displayed in F2 gained’t go down properly.
Tsunoda, within the different RB, demonstrates this. And he gave Daniel Ricciardo an almighty problem – extra of which has the potential to make Hadjar’s F1 stint quick if he can’t step up as he’ll be hoping.
Then there’s Purple Bull junior Arvid Lindblad beginning out in F2 this yr, already possessing some momentum inside Helmut Marko’s fiefdom. If he goes properly, that will increase stress on each present RB drivers.
9. Carlos Sainz

Sainz and Albon are anticipated to be simply matched at Williams in 2025
Photograph by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Pictures
Now on his fifth F1 group, Sainz begins 2025 attending to know Williams.
Some might surprise if he’ll battle to deal with racing a lot additional down the pack – Russell blamed these 2020 early race offs on the dearth of downforce he wasn’t used to from racing additional down the grid for a similar group because it began its rebuild. And there’s a suggestion a driver might battle when immediately not racing for normal podiums. However Sainz is way too intelligent for any of this to use.
And he’s so good general – simply fractionally off Leclerc on pure tempo final yr and displaying so fearlessly in opposition to him in battle. Being badly overwhelmed by Albon would, nonetheless, considerably alter his hard-work-won F1 profession notion and so therefore this rating spot. I simply don’t see it taking place.
8. Oscar Piastri

Now a confirmed F1 race-winner, Piastri wants to cut back his qualifying and race tempo deficits to Norris for McLaren to defend its constructors’ title
Photograph by: Dom Romney / Motorsport Pictures
Once more, expertise stage is on Oscar Piastri’s facet in the case of how stress can construct inside F1 team-mate partnerships. Given how a lot he’s already achieved, it’s straightforward to neglect that 2025 will likely be simply the Australian’s third season in grand prix racing.
However his McLaren squad now has a constructors’ crown to defend, with further stress coming from the very actual risk that one in every of its drivers actually can win their championship this time too.
Right here is Piastri’s twin downside. In 2024, he was a lot improved on race tempo in comparison with his rookie yr, however on common was nonetheless 0.4s slower than team-mate Lando Norris – based mostly on my calculation of common race tempo from final yr (see the February version of Autosport journal for an entire rundown).
And Piastri is aware of he was usually undercooked in qualifying too, the place Norris typically excelled. These decrease grid spots have a knock-on impact within the ongoing period of fragile tyres and soiled air, when it then involves race tempo averages.
Piastri has the potential to be an F1 nice however should take two massive steps on that path this yr, with a driver who has extra expertise of championship difficult and racing the dominant pressure of Verstappen wheel-to-wheel nonetheless as his direct comparability.
7. Alex Albon

Albon has a stern check with Sainz arriving at Williams, elevating the prospect of him not being its primary
Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Pictures
Two issues safe Albon this spot in comparison with the drivers forward.
He’s safe in his place at Williams – the group simply loves him, his perspective, his pace and his nous. Plus, he virtually actually gained’t should cope with the extra exterior stress of racing for wins and titles, given the place Williams nonetheless is in its rebuilding section.
However he now has a correctly prime rated team-mate for the primary time since his painful Purple Bull days. That would spell hazard for his personal hard-won glorious standing.
Albon nonetheless has a status for being a tad too good and Sainz confirmed final yr how arduous he’s ready to race a team-mate when he has little to lose. This extends to scrapping within the midfield pack nowadays.
I fear a contact for a way Albon might fare general given he did immediately look a bit uncovered in opposition to Colapinto late final yr. However he’s pulled off so many profession surprises that the potential of his defeating Sainz simply can’t be written off.
6. Charles Leclerc

With Hamilton coming into the equation, now could be the prospect for Leclerc to show himself a real Ferrari nice
Photograph by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Pictures
Now we’ll see precisely how glorious Leclerc is in F1. Okay, he’s nonetheless but to provide a full-season title tilt – about which new team-mate Hamilton is aware of all the things – however his 2024 season was the choose of his seven years to date at this stage. He noticed off a waning Sebastian Vettel, defeated Sainz’s impressively close-run cost, now he comes up in opposition to statistically F1’s biggest ever driver.
Leclerc has lots on his facet given he’s been a Ferrari star for practically a decade – he is aware of the group and the political Maranello environment very properly. And Hamilton is kind of not the driving force he as soon as was on the peak of his powers for Mercedes in 2018 by means of 2020.
It’s win-win in a way for Leclerc, as that time will likely be introduced up if he does defeat Hamilton. However Leclerc nonetheless has to truly try this first, within the full glare of F1 fan curiosity. It’s not for nothing that Hamilton’s first Ferrari laps this week have generated headline after headline…
Leclerc is greater than only a one trick qualifying star – his 2024 outcomes confirmed that and he’s stopped crashing when the stress is on in qualifying. However with Hamilton alongside him in pink, its instantly his most intense intra-team season since he joined Ferrari in 2019.
5. Liam Lawson

The stress of being team-mates with Verstappen wants no rationalization, and Lawson could have nowhere to cover
Photograph by: Purple Bull Content material Pool
Like Hadjar, the stress comes from throughout the Purple Bull empire for Lawson, as Marko, Horner and co will dispense with any underperforming driver in the event that they don’t construct up appreciable credit score like Perez did together with his defence on Verstappen’s behalf at Abu Dhabi in 2021.
Earlier than that, the Dutchman’s team-mates in Gasly and Albon have been quickly dropped. And that was with Purple Bull but to get again to title-challenging standing pre-2021. Now, any repetition of Perez’s factors haul in comparison with Verstappen might value the group a 3rd constructors’ title in 5.
That each one stated, Lawson does appear to be fearless. On his ‘rookie return’ in Austin he instantly incurred Alonso’s wrath together with his gutsy driving. Then, he had the boldness to provide Perez the finger in entrance of the Mexican’s residence followers amidst their battle every week later.
The mixture of the 2 components coated to date means Lawson’s season is already assured to be fascinating. However Verstappen’s status as team-mate breaker stands alone in elevating the stress thought of right here on the New Zealander.
4. Jack Doohan

With the notoriously impatient Briatore signing Colapinto and Hirakawa as reserves, Doohan has no scope to drop the ball
Photograph by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Pictures
One other one the place the stress is admittedly coming from elsewhere within the group, however how Doohan stacks up in opposition to Gasly will likely be what’s most readily cited if he’s dropped early in his F1 stint.
Alpine’s resolution to rent Colapinto as reserve has already been interpreted as a sign that it has serious doubts about Doohan, which suggests he’s bought a form of team-mate stress that’s utterly distinctive on this record. And he lacks junior automobile racing titles to lift confidence stakes in comparison with a few of his fellow rookies.
That stated, Alpine group boss Oliver Oakes insists “he’s getting his fair crack at it next year”. However he additionally claims, “it simply retains everybody trustworthy when it comes to how they’re performing and provides us choices”, which contradicts the primary assertion considerably.
And when Autosport sources counsel Toyota World Endurance driver Ryo Hirakawa has also been hired as an Alpine reserve with the promise of a potential 2026 seat, that too highlights simply how a lot stress will pervade on Doohan because the 2025 season begins.
3. Lewis Hamilton

All eyes will likely be on Hamilton at Ferrari, the place he will likely be anticipated to shrug off a tough 2024
Photograph by: Ferrari
He’s profitable the low season together with his slick arrival at Ferrari, however that counts for nothing as soon as the true motion will get going. And Hamilton is heading into 2025 off the again of a poor 2024, general.
Sure, he returned to profitable methods with that emotional record-extending win at Silverstone, however too usually he was off Russell’s tempo in qualifying and he struggled to manage greatest with Mercedes’ fluctuating type. Primarily based on latest historical past, extra of this needs to be anticipated for Ferrari.
Maybe extra tellingly is that on race tempo averages final yr, Hamilton was marginally slower as properly (0.01s down, in actual fact) in comparison with Russell. This needs to be of alarm given how tyre administration and race execution stay Hamilton’s largest strengths.
And in Leclerc, he now has F1’s quickest qualifier as a team-mate. It will massively amp up stress throughout the Ferrari storage on Hamilton – if he’s often lining up behind Leclerc (see the race tempo caveat above for Piastri too).
However Hamilton has all these 356 begins, seven titles, 105 wins and 104 poles. He has achieved precisely what Leclerc continues to be dreaming of, as they each hope 2025 is the yr Ferrari is absolutely again in championship rivalry. His enduring class might but win out.
Each group and driver have uber-illustrious reputations on this case. However for Hamilton’s a defeat to Leclerc after that inflicted by Russell final yr would imply extra harm created.
2. Lando Norris

Norris ended 2024 on prime, however Piastri has already supplied glimpses that he can take factors off his team-mate which might be expensive in one other battle with Verstappen for the drivers’ title
Photograph by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Pictures
Norris needs to be a title challenger from the off this time, given how McLaren was going as 2024 concluded. And he took that masterful, pressure-filled walk-off win in Abu Dhabi to ship its first constructors’ title in 26 years.
However his excessive rating right here is all to do together with his team-mate. In that Monza transfer, which ultimately value them each the race win to Leclerc, Piastri confirmed precisely how sturdy he will be in attaining his personal glory at Norris’s expense.
Piastri will certainly be even higher in 2025 and Norris was nonetheless making tiny errors at the same time as his sixth F1 season got here to a detailed (his Brazil dash quali slips and lacking the Qatar yellow flags, for instance).
He simply have to be good within the face of what’s most likely essentially the most intense intra-team scrap on the grid this time round.
1. George Russell

Russell ended 2024 strongly with Las Vegas win, however new menace of Antonelli will must be handled
Photograph by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Pictures
One factor elevates Russell above Norris on this record: how defeat to Antonelli might go away him susceptible to a sudden Mercedes exit.
Sure, it requires different unsure shifting components – in that absolutely solely Verstappen has an opportunity of shifting into the squad for 2026 if he does resolve to pressure his means out of Purple Bull early in any case. However Wolff simply wouldn’t cease wooing him for therefore lengthy final yr…
Therein lies the hazard for Russell. If Antonelli defeats him this yr, that will likely be an embarrassing reputational hit for the delightfully outspoken GPDA director. And if Verstappen is certainly obtainable, then Wolff can immediately match the racer he clearly views because the Dutchman’s potential successor as the pre-eminent F1 driver with the prevailing one, who he missed out on signing from F3 in 2014.
In what seems like a flash since his Mercedes promotion again in 2022, immediately Russell is the Silver Arrows driver with most to lose. However he in contrast so properly to Hamilton of their three years collectively, that alone needs to be a large confidence booster.

Russell has essentially the most to lose, however sturdy performances relative to Hamilton will give him confidence
Photograph by: Alastair Staley / Motorsport Pictures
On this article
Alex Kalinauckas
System 1
Fernando Alonso
Lewis Hamilton
Carlos Sainz
Max Verstappen
Nico Hulkenberg
Pierre Gasly
Lance Stroll
Charles Leclerc
Alex Albon
Lando Norris
Esteban Ocon
George Russell
Yuki Tsunoda
Jack Doohan
Liam Lawson
Isack Hadjar
Oscar Piastri
Oliver Bearman
Gabriel Bortoleto
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
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