Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes would love nothing greater than to finish their 12 years collectively on a excessive. Nevertheless, primarily based on latest kind, there’s a very actual threat that their time could end not with a bang, however with a whimper.
If issues proceed like they did in Brazil final weekend, the place Hamilton certified 14th and completed tenth whereas team-mate George Russell began on the entrance row and fought for the win, then there is not going to be a lot to smile about when the curtain comes down in Abu Dhabi.
Hamilton’s personal verdict after the Brazilian Grand Prix was fairly damning, as he labelled the race as “crap” on Sunday night time.
He added: “Yesterday [Saturday] was horrible. Right this moment [Sunday] was horrible. Yesterday was dangerous. Qualifying was dangerous. Dash race was dangerous. The automobile’s simply been dangerous all weekend.”
He additional fuelled intrigue concerning the scale of the struggles enveloping him as he delivered a cryptic message over the radio straight after the chequered flag.
“That was a catastrophe of a weekend, guys,” he mentioned on the cooldown lap. “That’s the worst the automobile has ever been. However thanks for contributing to attempt, and nice job to all the blokes on the pitstop.
“If that is the final time I get to carry out it was a disgrace it wasn’t nice – however grateful for you.”
Some interpreted these feedback as a revelation that Brazil was going to be Hamilton’s final race, though that’s actually large of the mark.
And, though it’s not clear precisely what he was referring to, his comment concerning the pit crew was extra doubtless a reference to the truth that some personnel had been having their final race look of 2024 in Brazil because of the shuffling round of workers to deal with the extraordinary schedule for triple headers.
The foundation of the issue
Whereas the present performances on the observe aren’t nice, what is maybe the most important challenge proper now’s that neither Mercedes nor Hamilton had a direct reply after Brazil for what had gone incorrect, regardless of there being some clear signs.
What’s at play is a repeat of what he has been battling for the reason that summer time break, when his kind took a giant dip from that spell in July when he took two wins from three races.
Primarily, the issue seems to be about Hamilton having a insecurity within the automobile, particularly its rear finish.
Because the above graph evaluating the telemetry traces of Hamilton (blue) and Russell (pink) in Q1 on Sunday morning exhibits clearly, there’s a exceptional distinction in the best way the drivers had been feeding within the throttle – primarily within the decrease velocity corners.
As the underside hint exhibits, Russell might enhance the accelerator constantly, whereas Hamilton’s insecurity is crystal clear. The unfastened rear finish means he’s always having to again off and that leaves him bleeding velocity and lap time.
The present technology of floor impact equipment are fairly brutal machines – working tremendous stiff and tremendous near the bottom – and they aren’t very forgiving when driving on the sting.
Some drivers are higher suited to beat an unpredictable steadiness, however Hamilton is discovering himself put a bit extra on the again foot by it.
And sometimes, when a driver loses religion within the rear finish, it slides extra – and that then compounds tyre temperature points.
So what begins out as a small challenge can rapidly present itself into one thing larger and might make two almost an identical vehicles vastly completely different in how they develop over a race stint.
As Mercedes head of trackside engineering Andrew Shovlin defined this week: “It’s honest to say Lewis was struggling predominantly with an absence of rear grip.
“If we take a look at how he had arrange his automobile, it’s not apparent the place that was coming from.
“However within the dash race, as quickly as you’ve got much less grip and you might be getting the snaps of oversteer on exit, you generate extra temperature. That in itself will extend the issue.
“As with every race, we spend quite a lot of time digging into the information, making an attempt to grasp it, and Lewis’ engineering crew will probably be working with him on this challenge, making an attempt to ensure we unravel it earlier than Vegas.”
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-AMG F1 Crew
Picture by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Pictures
Hamilton’s struggles to find a set-up he feels comfy with have additionally not been helped a lot by Mercedes’ newest improve that arrived at the US Grand Prix.
Whereas it seems to have ticked all of the packing containers with regards to ship additional efficiency on observe, there are some questions on it additionally including some behavioural instability as properly – as was witnessed by Hamilton’s race exit in Austin a day after George Russell’s qualifying crash.
And a selected weak point the automobile has, in coping with successive low-speed corners, is one thing that has not been improved with the newest adjustments.
Shovlin added: “Now we have not had such good efficiency within the dry, however the points that we’re scuffling with with this replace are the identical as those we had been scuffling with earlier than.
“The place we are usually weak, it’s within the gradual velocity corners, notably those the place you’ve got one nook following into one other. There may be quite a lot of turning of the automobile, and that may be a weak point that we have to work on.”
With sector two of Interlagos being just about all about interconnected gradual corners, it was apparent that the Brazil occasion was going to doubtlessly be tougher than regular for the group.
Engaged on an answer
The one constructive for Hamilton proper now’s that no less than Russell’s performances present what is feasible with the automobile.
And a few forthcoming high-speed venues, particularly Qatar, might assist higher expose the strengths of the W15 bundle fairly than its weaknesses.
Hamilton has admitted that issues aren’t simple proper now, however there was no different choice than to dig deeper together with his group to attempt to discover a means out of it earlier than Abu Dhabi.
“Clearly, it is devastating to have these dangerous races within the second half of the season,” he mentioned. “However all I can say is, we’re making an attempt.
“However it’s positively not acceptable. It is positively not ok. And we’ve got to take accountability. I’ve to take accountability. However I’m driving.; I’m doing the perfect with what I’ve received.
“The automobile has been the worst this weekend, and I do not know what it’s. We’ll have to search out out what it’s.”
That work started for Hamilton this week with some intense work on the manufacturing unit to take a seat down with the engineers, and spend time within the simulator yesterday, to attempt to get some solutions as to what’s occurring.
Las Vegas will inform us simply how a lot these efforts have paid off.
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W15
Picture by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Pictures