Was Magnussen’s Canadian GP assessment correct after early heroics?

From 14th on the grid, Magnussen discovered the intense moist tyre notably potent within the first six laps when the circuit was at its most slippery, and carved his manner as much as fourth by the tip of lap three.

That put him in touching distance of the highest three however, because the circuit started to dry out, the crossover level between intermediates and wets started to shut in.

In measuring Magnussen’s early excursions versus these of Oscar Piastri, whom the Dane had handed for fourth, that crossover level arrived on lap six: Magnussen set a 1m34.673s, Piastri a 1m33.060s, which prompted Haas to deliver Magnussen in on the next lap for intermediates.

So, one may assume that it was the proper name for Magnussen to come back in – he’d now began lapping slower than the vehicles forward. A gradual pitstop relatively damage his probabilities and value him observe place, however he shook out in thirteenth nonetheless to a minimum of make a place.

“It was wanting good,” he defined post-race. “We took the proper alternative on the complete wets – however then I believe we pitted off onto the inter too early as a result of we ended up having to take one other inter. We might have stretched that full moist, to then go on to the inter and keep on it as an alternative.

“On high of that, we had a really gradual pit cease. It felt like we had some alternative there – however did not get something out of it.

“We did not try to take any loopy gamble or something. We simply did what we felt was proper for the circumstances. And it seemed okay, so I believe we did the proper factor there to start with however – then did not again it up with the proper choices thereafter.”

Haas tried to go longer with Nico Hulkenberg’s stint, and the German held on till lap 12 having made his personal ascent up the sphere to seventh. After the sixth-lap cross-over, Hulkenberg was lapping between 1-1.5 seconds slower than Daniel Ricciardo behind, earlier than the Australian ultimately took again management of eighth on lap 11.

However Hulkenberg was battling a automobile he famous was “not totally wholesome”, so it stands to cause that Magnussen might need been capable of have gained a couple of tenths over his team-mate’s vary of occasions within the 1m34s. It appeared like Haas had timed its Magnussen cease to restrict the harm of the time taken to pit whereas the sphere unfold was adequate, however the gradual cease price about 5 to 6 seconds and the timing meant that Magnussen wanted to cease once more below the protection automobile.

It was anticipated that rain was due earlier than the race’s mid-point, though answering Magnussen’s suggestion can be made with the good thing about hindsight. Maybe hanging it out till lap 15 would have negated the necessity for an additional cease below the protection automobile for brand spanking new inters, that call-in ultimately shuffling Magnussen down again to 14th.

Let’s check out how the moist tyre technique might have performed out, with out that seventh-lap cease, and we’ll do the identical for Hulkenberg and his lap 12 pitstop – though his laptimes would require much less in the way in which of extrapolation.

On the finish of lap six, Magnussen was 4.76s away from Piastri. Assuming he might proceed on the identical tempo, Piastri would have wanted two or three extra laps to mount a move on pure tempo, though the necessity to again off onto the moist elements of the circuit might need hindered that barely.

Regardless, Magnussen was probably not racing the McLaren driver; that is purely an experiment to find out if Haas might have managed factors. Thus, evaluating the laps of Ricciardo, Lance Stroll, Charles Leclerc, and Yuki Tsunoda is probably extra worthwhile as some extent of reference.

Here is what we’ll do: ‘tare’ Magnussen on the finish of the second lap, and work out the relative gaps of these vehicles who battled for factors on the decrease finish of the highest 10. Subsequent, his recorded laptime from lap seven can be deleted and the delta over his earlier lap extrapolated to the tip of the lap. He was roughly 0.36s up earlier than the braking zone for Turns 13/14, so we’ll take that off his sixth-lap 1m34.673s.

For ease, we’ll transpose in Hulkenberg’s laptimes from lap eight to lap 11; though he was over a second slower per lap than Magnussen, this was because of him spending longer in visitors. By the point Hulkenberg had acquired as much as seventh he was extra constantly within the 1m34s after the battling Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton pulled clear, which is far more consultant of the moist tyre tempo, though his calculated twelfth lap is far slower given his bizarre method to the hairpin – he.

We’ll apply that to his personal occasions however, for Magnussen, we’ll as an alternative extra steadily degrade his occasions in keeping with the drying observe efficiency. It is laborious to know what the efficiency deltas per lap can be, as Pirelli doesn’t so readily provide that data, however estimating is half the enjoyable.

Here is the place we’re once we construct up the laptime image with conservative estimates for laps 12-15. (All figures in seconds)

Primarily based on the lap deltas, Magnussen seems to fall 10 seconds behind Ricciardo which places him thirteenth earlier than his cease – precisely the place he ended up after his pitstop. Hulkenberg is an additional 14 seconds behind his personal team-mate, though this positive factors him one place and places him 18th – marginally forward of Zhou Guanyu. That is all pre-pitstop nevertheless and, assuming a 25-second cease, each Haas drivers would find yourself a way adrift on the again – Magnussen is 79.594s off the lead, with Hulkenberg 93.551s away.

Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-24, Oscar Piastri, McLaren MCL38

Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

Contemporary intermediates for 10 laps would reward them with some laptime, though their real-world tempo on recent inters was not a lot faster total than that of Logan Sargeant’s. And, if the plan is to avoid wasting tyres to make sure they’re in respectable nick for the second downpour, it is laborious to see it altering. So, assuming tempo is stagnant, the gaps will stay the identical.

Nevertheless, that is the important thing bit: how a lot do they get again from not stopping below the lap 25 security automobile?

Three drivers stayed out on the identical set of inters through the security automobile: Tsunoda, Valtteri Bottas, and Esteban Ocon. Collating a median of their lap 25 occasions, we get a ‘keep out’ lap of a 1m52.613s, over 10s faster versus the pit-in time that the Haas drivers really managed (2m09.198 for Magnussen, 2m03.974 for Hulkenberg).

However that 10 seconds is not sufficient to deliver the Haas duo again into play – an end-of-lap 15 cease seems to be too late. The 2 principally lose a pitstop by staying on the wets for longer because the intermediates are a number of seconds per lap faster, and they might want to realize that again plus change for staying out.

What about stopping on lap 12 and staying out below the protection automobile?

After his precise cease, Hulkenberg emerged onto the observe in nineteenth place. The lap earlier than the protection automobile, he was 9 seconds behind Bottas who didn’t cease. Assuming the identical hole, albeit one which was compressing as the protection automobile began to again up the sphere, Hulkenberg might at greatest have hoped to take a seat sixteenth because the stops shook out, nonetheless behind Bottas who in the end didn’t register any factors.

Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-24 battles with Carlos Sainz, Ferrari SF-24

Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

It might need labored out for Magnussen, nevertheless; an end-of-lap-12 cease would have put him someplace between the Saubers, though recent intermediates might need acquired him forward of Bottas and knocking on the door of Gasly. That places him in Ocon territory when the stops come, providing a shot at ninth or tenth when the race shakes out into its last order.

Maybe, then, Magnussen has some extent – actually and figuratively. Had his stint on the intense moist been prolonged by 5 laps and never hindered by gradual pitstops, he’d have probably introduced a way more compelling prospect so as to add to Haas’ factors tally for the season.

However, to cite Italian movie star chef and TV persona Gino D’Acampo: if his grandmother had wheels, she’d be a motorbike. Extrapolating from incomplete information, particularly in a moist race, is usually folly – however Haas might need been higher served to maintain Magnussen on the wets for a couple of extra laps…