Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes would really like nothing greater than to finish their 12 years collectively on a excessive.
Nevertheless, based mostly on latest kind, there’s a very actual danger that their time might end not with a bang, however with a whimper.
If issues proceed like they did in Brazil final weekend, the place Hamilton certified 14th and completed tenth whereas team-mate George Russell began on the entrance row and fought for the win, then there is not going to be a lot to smile about when the curtain comes down in Abu Dhabi.
Hamilton’s personal verdict after the Brazilian Grand Prix was fairly damning, as he labelled the race as “crap” on Sunday evening.
He added: “Yesterday [Saturday] was horrible. In the present day [Sunday] was horrible. Yesterday was unhealthy. Qualifying was unhealthy. Dash race was unhealthy. The automobile’s simply been unhealthy all weekend.”
He additional fuelled intrigue concerning the scale of the struggles enveloping him as he delivered a cryptic message over the radio straight after the chequered flag.
“That was a catastrophe of a weekend, guys,” he stated on the cooldown lap. “That’s the worst the automobile has ever been. However thanks for contributing to attempt, and nice job to all the blokes on the pitstop.
“If that is the final time I get to carry out it was a disgrace it wasn’t nice – however grateful for you.”
Some interpreted these feedback as a revelation that Brazil was going to be Hamilton’s final race, though that’s definitely broad of the mark.
And, though it’s not clear precisely what he was referring to, his comment concerning the pit crew on a day once they weren’t really referred to as into motion, was extra seemingly a reference to the truth that some personnel have been having their final race look of 2024 in Brazil as a result of shuffling round of employees to deal with the extreme schedule for triple headers.
The foundation of the issue
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W15
Picture by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Photographs
Whereas the present performances on the observe should not nice, what is probably the largest subject proper now could be that neither Mercedes nor Hamilton had an instantaneous reply after Brazil for what had gone mistaken, regardless of there being some clear signs.
What’s at play is a repeat of what he has been battling for the reason that summer time break, when his kind took a giant dip from that spell in July when he took two wins from three races.
Primarily, the issue seems to be about Hamilton having a insecurity within the automobile, particularly its rear finish.
Because the above graph evaluating the telemetry traces of Hamilton (blue) and Russell (purple) in Q1 on Sunday morning reveals clearly, there’s a exceptional distinction in the way in which the drivers have been feeding within the throttle – primarily within the slower velocity corners.
As the underside hint reveals, Russell might improve the accelerator constantly, whereas Hamilton’s insecurity is crystal clear. The free rear finish means he’s continually having to again off – and that leaves him bleeding velocity and lap time.
The present era of ground-effect equipment are fairly brutal machines – operating tremendous stiff and tremendous near the bottom – and they aren’t very forgiving when driving on the sting.
Some drivers are higher suited to beat an unpredictable steadiness, however Hamilton is discovering himself put a bit extra on the again foot by it.
And usually, when a driver loses religion within the rear finish, it slides extra – and that then compounds tyre temperature points.
So what begins out as a small subject can shortly present itself into one thing larger and may make two almost similar vehicles vastly totally different in how they develop over a race stint.
As Mercedes head of trackside engineering Andrew Shovlin defined this week: “It’s honest to say Lewis was struggling predominantly with an absence of rear grip.
“If we take a look at how he had arrange his automobile, it’s not apparent the place that was coming from.
“However within the dash race, as quickly as you’ve got much less grip and you might be getting the snaps of oversteer on exit, you generate extra temperature. That in itself will delay the issue.
“As with every race, we spend numerous time digging into the info, making an attempt to grasp it, and Lewis’ engineering crew will likely be working with him on this subject, making an attempt to verify we unravel it earlier than Vegas.”
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-AMG F1 Group
Picture by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Photographs
Hamilton’s struggles to find a set-up he feels snug with have additionally not been helped a lot by Mercedes’ newest improve that arrived at america Grand Prix.
Whereas it seems to have ticked all of the packing containers in terms of ship additional efficiency on observe, there are some questions on it additionally including some behavioural instability as effectively – as was witnessed by Hamilton’s race exit in Austin a day after George Russell’s qualifying crash.
And a selected weak point the automobile has, in coping with successive low-speed corners, is one thing that has not been improved with the most recent adjustments.
Shovlin added: “We’ve got not had such good efficiency within the dry, however the points that we’re fighting with this replace are the identical as those we have been fighting earlier than.
“The place we are typically weak, it’s within the gradual velocity corners, significantly those the place you’ve got one nook following into one other. There may be numerous turning of the automobile, and that may be a weak point that we have to work on.”
With sector two of Interlagos being just about all about interconnected gradual corners, it was apparent that the Brazil occasion was going to doubtlessly be tougher than regular for the crew.
Engaged on an answer
The one optimistic for Hamilton proper now could be that a minimum of Russell’s performances present what is feasible with the automobile.
And a few forthcoming high-speed venues, particularly Qatar, might assist higher expose the strengths of the W15 package deal relatively than its weaknesses.
Hamilton has admitted that issues should not simple proper now, however there was no different possibility than to dig deeper along with his crew to attempt to discover a means out of it earlier than Abu Dhabi.
“Clearly, it is devastating to have these unhealthy races within the second half of the season,” he stated. “However all I can say is, we’re making an attempt.
“However it’s undoubtedly not acceptable. It is undoubtedly not ok. And now we have to take accountability. I’ve to take accountability. However I’m driving.; I’m doing the very best with what I’ve bought.
“The automobile has been the worst this weekend, and I do not know what it’s. We’ll have to search out out what it’s.”
That work started for Hamilton this week with some intense work on the manufacturing unit to sit down down with the engineers, and spend time within the simulator yesterday, to attempt to get some solutions as to what’s taking place.
Las Vegas will inform us simply how a lot these efforts have paid off.
Further reporting by Gianluca D’Alessandro