Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes would really like nothing greater than to finish their 12 years collectively on a excessive.
Nevertheless, primarily based on current type, there’s a very actual threat that their time could end not with a bang, however with a whimper.
If issues proceed like they did in Brazil final weekend, the place Hamilton certified 14th and completed tenth whereas team-mate George Russell began on the entrance row and fought for the win, then there is not going to be a lot to smile about when the curtain comes down in Abu Dhabi.
Hamilton’s personal verdict after the Brazilian Grand Prix was fairly damning, as he labelled the race as “crap” on Sunday night time.
He added: “Yesterday [Saturday] was horrible. Right now [Sunday] was horrible. Yesterday was dangerous. Qualifying was dangerous. Dash race was dangerous. The automotive’s simply been dangerous all weekend.”
He additional fuelled intrigue concerning the scale of the struggles enveloping him as he delivered a cryptic message over the radio straight after the chequered flag.
“That was a catastrophe of a weekend, guys,” he stated on the cooldown lap. “That’s the worst the automotive has ever been. However thanks for contributing to strive, and nice job to all the blokes on the pitstop.
“If that is the final time I get to carry out it was a disgrace it wasn’t nice – however grateful for you.”
Some interpreted these feedback as a revelation that Brazil was going to be Hamilton’s final race, though that’s actually large of the mark.
And, though it isn’t clear precisely what he was referring to, his comment concerning the pit crew on a day after they weren’t really referred to as into motion, was extra seemingly a reference to the truth that some personnel had been having their final race look of 2024 in Brazil because of the shuffling round of workers to deal with the extreme schedule for triple headers.
The foundation of the issue
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W15
Photograph by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Photos
Whereas the present performances on the monitor should not nice, what is maybe the largest situation proper now’s that neither Mercedes nor Hamilton had an instantaneous reply after Brazil for what had gone flawed, regardless of there being some clear signs.
What’s at play is a repeat of what he has been battling for the reason that summer time break, when his type took an enormous dip from that spell in July when he took two wins from three races.
Primarily, the issue seems to be about Hamilton having a insecurity within the automotive, particularly its rear finish.
Because the above graph evaluating the telemetry traces of Hamilton (blue) and Russell (purple) in Q1 on Sunday morning reveals clearly, there’s a outstanding distinction in the way in which the drivers had been feeding within the throttle – primarily within the slower pace corners.
As the underside hint reveals, Russell might enhance the accelerator persistently, whereas Hamilton’s insecurity is crystal clear. The unfastened rear finish means he’s always having to again off – and that leaves him bleeding pace and lap time.
The present technology of ground-effect equipment are fairly brutal machines – working tremendous stiff and tremendous near the bottom – and they don’t seem to be very forgiving when driving on the sting.
Some drivers are higher suited to beat an unpredictable steadiness, however Hamilton is discovering himself put a bit extra on the again foot by it.
And usually, when a driver loses religion within the rear finish, it slides extra – and that then compounds tyre temperature points.
So what begins out as a small situation can shortly present itself into one thing larger and may make two practically an identical vehicles vastly totally different in how they develop over a race stint.
As Mercedes head of trackside engineering Andrew Shovlin defined this week: “It’s truthful to say Lewis was struggling predominantly with an absence of rear grip.
“If we take a look at how he had arrange his automotive, it isn’t apparent the place that was coming from.
“However within the dash race, as quickly as you’ve got much less grip and you’re getting the snaps of oversteer on exit, you generate extra temperature. That in itself will lengthen the issue.
“As with every race, we spend numerous time digging into the information, making an attempt to grasp it, and Lewis’ engineering crew can be working with him on this situation, making an attempt to verify we resolve it earlier than Vegas.”
Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes-AMG F1 Staff
Photograph by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Photos
Hamilton’s struggles find a set-up he feels snug with have additionally not been helped a lot by Mercedes’ newest improve that arrived at the US Grand Prix.
Whereas it seems to have ticked all of the packing containers in terms of ship further efficiency on monitor, there are some questions on it additionally including some behavioural instability as effectively – as was witnessed by Hamilton’s race exit in Austin a day after George Russell’s qualifying crash.
And a selected weak spot the automotive has, in coping with successive low-speed corners, is one thing that has not been improved with the most recent modifications.
Shovlin added: “We’ve not had such good efficiency within the dry, however the points that we’re fighting with this replace are the identical as those we had been fighting earlier than.
“The place we are typically weak, it’s within the gradual pace corners, notably those the place you’ve got one nook following into one other. There may be numerous turning of the automotive, and that may be a weak spot that we have to work on.”
With sector two of Interlagos being just about all about interconnected gradual corners, it was apparent that the Brazil occasion was going to probably be harder than regular for the crew.
Engaged on an answer
The one constructive for Hamilton proper now’s that at the very least Russell’s performances present what is feasible with the automotive.
And a few forthcoming high-speed venues, particularly Qatar, might assist higher expose the strengths of the W15 bundle relatively than its weaknesses.
Hamilton has admitted that issues should not straightforward proper now, however there was no different choice than to dig deeper together with his crew to attempt to discover a approach out of it earlier than Abu Dhabi.
“Clearly, it is devastating to have these dangerous races within the second half of the season,” he stated. “However all I can say is, we’re making an attempt.
“Nevertheless it’s undoubtedly not acceptable. It is undoubtedly not adequate. And we have now to take accountability. I’ve to take accountability. However I’m driving.; I’m doing the very best with what I’ve bought.
“The automotive has been the worst this weekend, and I do not know what it’s. We will have to search out out what it’s.”
That work started for Hamilton this week with some intense work on the manufacturing unit to sit down down with the engineers, and spend time within the simulator yesterday, to attempt to get some solutions as to what’s taking place.
Las Vegas will inform us simply how a lot these efforts have paid off.
Extra reporting by Gianluca D’Alessandro