Why the jury is still out on the Dakar’s route shake-up risk

Anybody who assumed the Dakar Rally had change into too straightforward since leaving its religious dwelling in Africa was stunned by the primary few days of the 2025 occasion in Saudi Arabia. The strategic choice to put the 48-hour stage close to the very starting triggered havoc, taking out a number of heavyweights together with four-time champion Carlos Sainz Sr (Ford) and WRC legend Sebastien Loeb (Dacia) – who exited within the subsequent stage after the Chrono.

Dakar has all the time been ruthless to its rivals however the begin of its forty seventh version has been significantly brutal. A lot of the drivers this yr had already skilled a two-day, 48-hour stage on its debut in 2024, however organiser ASO had raised the stakes this time round.

Firstly, the aggressive distance was virtually doubled from 549km to almost a thousand kilometres, that means it was value greater than the final 4 levels mixed. Then, the route for bikes and vehicles was cut up, leaving drivers to navigate on their very own with out the assistance of any tracks laid out by their two-wheel counterparts. And at last, many drivers had sacrificed the opening stage as a way to achieve a extra beneficial street place, obliging them to push even tougher to make up the misplaced floor.

All these elements mixed to create mayhem, whittling the sector down and leaving a number of pre-race favourites out of the operating, With levels 4 and 5 additionally run to a marathon format, your entire opening week of Dakar could possibly be filled with attrition. If it wasn’t for a WRC-style rule launched in 2022 that allowed drivers retiring from a stage to rejoin the rally the next day, much more contenders would have been compelled out by now.

ASO can take into account itself lucky {that a} resurgent Mini is within the hunt for victory for the primary time since dropping Sainz and Stephane Peterhansel on the finish of 2021. The change from diesel engine to petrol energy has remodeled the fortunes of the manufacturing unit X-raid workforce, bringing one other contender into the combo at a time when newcomers Dacia and Ford are nonetheless studying the ropes in cross-country rallying.

The highest 10 drivers, representing 5 producers Toyota, Dacia, Ford, Century and Mini, are nonetheless separated by roughly half-hour of one another, that means the struggle stays broad open heading to Alula on Wednesday. If the story stays largely the identical come the remainder day in Riyadh, it is going to maintain viewers glued to the screens through the second half of the occasion.

This could be a welcome change for Dakar after the previous few years, the place the winner was roughly determined within the first week. In 2023, as an illustration, then-Toyota driver Nasser Al-Attiyah had already pulled out a spot of an hour by Stage 6 of 14, and was successfully driving on cruise management thereafter.

That wasn’t a very good search for Dakar by any means, at the same time as Loeb supplied some fireworks along with his blistering velocity within the Prodrive Hunter. Even in 2024, victory was a foregone conclusion for Sainz and Audi lengthy earlier than drivers set off for the ultimate stage in Yanbu.

Contemplating the occasions of current years, Dakar had taken a giant danger by making a front-heavy route for 2025, with all of the longer levels scheduled within the first week. The truth is, two of the final three levels are lower than 150km in size, with the ultimate sprint to Shubayth simply 67km lengthy. The final day of the rally is normally nothing greater than a formality for the drivers, however this time even Stage 10 runs for simply 120km.

Mattias Ekstrom stated he would have most well-liked if ASO had deliberate a route that began off straightforward in week one earlier than getting more durable with each passing stage within the second half of the rally

To probably throw a spanner within the works, drivers must undergo the unforgiving Empty Quarters on the finish of rally, with loads of dunes to sort out via the desert. Nonetheless, that might truly show counterproductive, ought to a driver have a giant lead by the final main stage, the ninth take a look at between Riyadh and Haradh. With troublesome terrain, and little time to achieve given the quick distance concerned, there shall be no incentive to push when the danger of crashing is excessive.

Equally, if the struggle is shut on the entrance, some drivers will be predisposed to show up the wick and go for even marginal beneficial properties, conserving the joy up till the final minute.

The jury, therefore, is out whether or not this yr’s unconventional route will ship an thrilling rally all through. As Ford’s Mattias Ekstrom stated, he would have most well-liked if ASO had deliberate a route that began off straightforward in week one earlier than getting more durable with each passing stage within the second half of the rally. Whereas it’s too early to say how the remainder of Dakar 2025 will pan out, the occasion has managed to maintain everybody on their toes thus far.

Henk Lategan leads the best way for Toyota, however the occasion stays broad open

Picture by: Toyota Racing